Abstract

Microinsurance schemes with low premiums, specifically designed for low-income populations, are an effective mechanism for increasing insurance penetration in low-income developing countries. This research project, one of the first comprehensive studies of its kind in Iran, examines the expansion of microinsurance in Iran in three parts across seven chapters, combining global experience, statistical analysis, machine learning, and practical product design.

The first part, comprising three chapters, provides a detailed review of international and Iranian experiences with microinsurance. Chapter 2 summarizes the Microinsurance Network Report (2023), presenting key insights into global practices for providing microinsurance. Recognizing that general reports often lack sufficient detail, Chapter 3 extends the analysis by examining 20 selected countries through first-hand sources and insurance company websites. This chapter reviews the historical development of microinsurance, characteristics of insurance markets, product types and features, performance outcomes, operational challenges, and proposed solutions. Chapter 4 focuses on the Iranian context, analyzing local experiences in microinsurance. The comprehensive examination of global practices provides both practical lessons and conceptual guidance for policymakers, regulators, and researchers in Iran.

The second part of the study addresses the critical need for precise identification of the target population. Expansion of microinsurance requires a deep understanding of the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of potential customers. Chapters 5 and 6 employ household budget survey data from the Statistical Center of Iran (2019–2023) and implement multiple machine learning algorithms to identify and screen non-insurable individuals from those in need of microinsurance support. While the hidden nature of poverty and need complicates identification, accurate screening is essential to ensure program efficiency and prevent misallocation of resources. The study further interprets the “black box” of machine learning models to determine which characteristics drive predictions. This information was translated into a questionnaire for potential microinsurance clients, which, when integrated with trained machine learning algorithms in a custom-designed dashboard, allows for accurate identification of eligible individuals.

Chapter 6 also applies advanced statistical techniques to cluster the target population, identifying 15 distinct groups with varying socio-economic characteristics, insurance needs, and behavioral patterns. The results underscore the necessity of designing microinsurance products and distribution channels that are sensitive to the specific needs of each cluster. The success of microinsurance schemes is contingent upon both product relevance and ease of access, ensuring affordability, convenience, and usability for each cluster.

The third part, presented in Chapter 7, translates these analyses into actionable strategies for product and channel design. Through elite meetings and expert consultations, and using the findings from the global experience review, the study identified potential microinsurance products and distribution channels. A questionnaire was administered to Iranian insurance industry experts, eliciting 45 responses from 13 specialized organizations. Using hierarchical comparison methods, the study analyzed expert input to determine the most suitable products and channels for each cluster. Inter-cluster comparisons further identified products that are suitable for multiple clusters, enabling broader coverage and more efficient allocation of resources.

This research provides a comprehensive framework for the expansion of microinsurance in Iran, integrating lessons from international experience, advanced statistical and machine learning methodologies, and practical insights from industry stakeholders. The study highlights the importance of data-driven identification of target populations, cluster-specific product and channel design, and alignment of global best practices with local socio-economic realities to increase insurance penetration and financial inclusion in Iran.

Keywords: microinsurance; comparative study; machine learning algorithms; insurance product design; distribution channels; target population clustering; financial inclusion; Iran.

Abstract

This study investigates the optimal number of insurance companies in Iran by considering economic, demographic, and insurance indicators. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), and Cointegrated Vector Autoregression (Cointegration VAR) methods for the period 1390–1402 (2011–2023), the results indicate that the optimal number of insurance companies in Iran is 49, comprising 5 life insurance companies, 10 reinsurance companies, and 34 non-life insurance companies.

The study evaluates market participants and proposes three scenarios for estimating the optimal number of insurers. In the first scenario, modeling from the shareholders’ perspective, with profitability as the decision criterion, the estimated number of companies is 40. The second scenario considers the regulators’ perspective, including institutions such as the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance and the Central Insurance of Iran, with competition and market expansion as the decision criterion, yielding an estimate of 55 companies. Finally, the third scenario models the policyholders’ perspective, where claim payments serve as the primary criterion, resulting in an optimal number of 49 companies.

The findings highlight that adjustments in the number of insurance companies must be accompanied by improvements in customer satisfaction—including service quality and prompt claims settlement—and enhancements in company performance, such as sustainable profitability and operational efficiency. The DEA method assessed static efficiency and defined the optimal efficiency frontier, while ABM simulations across 11 scenarios indicated fluctuations between 46 and 53 companies. The Cointegration VAR model examined long-term variable relationships, predicting that optimizing the number of companies could increase market penetration by 3–4 percent. The integrated use of these methods provides a comprehensive view of market dynamics and underscores the need for diversification, particularly when 50% of the portfolio is concentrated in specific insurance lines.

Keywords: optimal number of insurance companies; insurance market analysis; Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA); Agent-Based Modeling (ABM); Cointegration VAR; life insurance; non-life insurance; reinsurance; insurance industry of Iran

Abstract

In today’s turbulent and highly competitive business environment, organizations across all sectors face a broad spectrum of risks that directly affect performance and influence their capacity to achieve strategic and long-term objectives. Ensuring operational continuity and organizational stability under such dynamic conditions requires continuous alignment with environmental changes and the adoption of timely and appropriate responses. Achieving this objective necessitates accurate and well-informed decision-making, which, in turn, depends on a comprehensive assessment of both the explicit and implicit dimensions of organizational activities, including their associated risks. Consequently, managers prioritize different categories of risk and seek to identify and evaluate them in order to develop integrated and effective risk management strategies.

The relative importance of risks varies across organizations depending on internal factors—such as the nature and scale of operations, organizational size, and available financial and human resources—as well as external factors, including macroeconomic and social conditions, regulatory environments, and exposure to natural hazards. Given that insurance companies function as societal risk bearers and play a critical role in enabling other organizations to manage and transfer risk effectively, risk management assumes particular significance within this sector. Within the framework of sound risk management practices, the development of risk profiles classified by insurance lines—such as life insurance and supplementary health insurance—constitutes a fundamental step.

Accordingly, this study aims to examine the role of risk profiling in the risk management processes of insurance companies and to analyze the challenges and opportunities associated with its implementation in Iran’s insurance industry. To this end, a comparative analysis of selected countries, namely the Netherlands, the United States, and Germany, is conducted. Subsequently, the infrastructural requirements for implementing a risk profiling system in Iran’s insurance sector are assessed, and the key challenges associated with this process are identified.

Keywords: risk profiling; risk management; Enterprise Risk Management (ERM); insurance companies; insurance lines; life insurance; supplementary health insurance; comparative analysis; insurance industry of Iran

Abstract

This research aims to develop and present standardized guidelines for risk assessment in employers’ liability insurance covering employees involved in construction and civil engineering projects. Given the rapid rise in workplace accidents, the growing technical complexity of such projects, and the increasing number of legal claims stemming from employers’ statutory obligations, there is a clear need for a standardized, structured, and reliable framework for identifying and analyzing insurance risks. The study is organized into five chapters. Chapter One outlines the general background, significance, and objectives of the research, while highlighting the necessity of developing a standardized risk assessment framework from the perspective of the insurance industry. Chapter Two reviews the theoretical foundations and related literature, examining the structure of employers’ liability insurance in construction and civil engineering projects, and drawing upon relevant international practices. Chapter Three employs the Delphi method, engaging industry experts to identify and prioritize key risk factors in these projects. Chapter Four analyzes proposal form structures, frameworks for preliminary risk inspections, qualitative and quantitative standards and methodologies, as well as contemporary approaches to risk assessment and safety provisions embedded in employers’ liability insurance policies in selected countries. Since risk assessment prior to policy issuance is legally mandated in a significant proportion of construction and civil engineering projects, this chapter concludes with findings from comparative analyses of proposal forms used by insurance companies. The results lead to the formulation of a specific framework for standardizing proposal forms, initial inspections, risk assessments, and related guidelines. The outcomes of this study provide insurance companies with practical tools to design and develop project-specific risk profiles, enabling them to evaluate and adjust premiums scientifically according to each project’s unique risk characteristics. Ultimately, the research offers a practical roadmap for improving the risk assessment process in liability insurance and for advancing professional underwriting practices within the construction and civil engineering sectors.

Keywords: employers’ liability insurance, risk assessment, civil engineering project, Delphi method

Abstract

In life insurance pricing, mortality probabilities are among the key risk factors in assessing the insured risk, typically derived from life tables. In actuarial science and demography, life tables present the likelihood of individuals at different ages surviving to their next birthday. Such tables are widely employed in the insurance industry for purposes including the projection of deaths, evaluation of costs, and estimation of current and future liabilities. Mortality probabilities are central to the calculation of life insurance premiums, reserves, and long-term obligations, and they are determined at the outset of a policy for its entire duration. Given the long-term nature of life insurance contracts, the use of an accurate life table that reflects the mortality experience of the insured population is of critical importance. Beyond age-specific mortality, variations in the probability of death by cause also influence the insurance payment structure; in other words, both the causes and timing of death can significantly affect financial obligations. This study therefore aims to measure the impact of major causes of death and their changes on mortality probabilities and life expectancy at the national level. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 2011 to 2021, separate multi-decrement life tables are constructed for Iranian men and women for each year. Subsequently, cause-specific life tables are projected through 2026.

Keywords: multi-decrement life table, Global Burden of Disease, mortality probability, life expectancy

Abstract

Blockchain technology, characterized by its decentralized, transparent, and tamper-resistant nature, is rapidly emerging as a transformative catalyst in the insurance industry, particularly within life insurance and family takaful sectors. Given the sensitivity and confidentiality of individuals’ medical histories and personal information, blockchain offers critical enhancements in accuracy, security, and trust for recording and managing data, thereby improving operational processes and fostering reliable transactions between individuals and organizations. This study examines global examples of blockchain applications in life insurance and family takaful, alongside successful initiatives by insurance companies worldwide, with a specific focus on proposing solutions for blockchain integration at Saman Insurance Company in Iran. Despite its significant potential to prevent fraud, automate policy issuance and claims settlement, streamline health data access, and facilitate reinsurance coordination, blockchain adoption in Iran remains limited due to institutional, regulatory, and educational challenges. Key obstacles include a lack of comprehensive understanding of blockchain’s technical and strategic dimensions, unclear legal frameworks, and limited organizational readiness. Addressing these challenges requires a multidimensional approach that encompasses developing distributed ledger systems for secure and transparent data management, standardizing interoperable blockchain platforms, and fostering collaboration among insurers, regulators, technology developers, and academia. Furthermore, legal and regulatory reforms are essential to align blockchain’s decentralized architecture with existing insurance legislation, while targeted education and cultural change management are critical to empower personnel and facilitate organizational adaptation. This research, conducted in collaboration with Saman Insurance Company, offers an initial framework for the practical and strategic integration of blockchain technology in Iran’s life insurance sector. It underscores the necessity of a comprehensive national strategy combining education, policy development, technological standardization, and stakeholder cooperation to realize blockchain’s full potential. The findings contribute to guiding the Iranian insurance industry towards a more secure, transparent, and innovative future aligned with global digital transformation trends.

Keywords: blockchain, life insurance, family takaful, Iran, fraud, policy issuance

Abstract

This research project, commissioned by the Bodily Injury Fund, was conducted with an applied orientation. The study is structured into six chapters. Chapter One examines the efforts made to identify uninsured land motor vehicles in Iran. It provides a review and analysis of relevant laws, regulations, and executive directives pertaining to the denial of services to uninsured vehicles, the identification processes for such vehicles, and the measures implemented by law enforcement to restrict their movement. Chapter Two evaluates the performance of responsible institutions in defining offenses and implementing deterrent measures against individuals driving uninsured vehicles. It includes an assessment of the effectiveness of these measures and the roles played by key organizations, including the police force, the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, and the Central Insurance of I. R. Iran. Chapter Three focuses on the operations of the Bodily Injury Fund in accordance with Article 21 of the relevant law. It explores the specific modalities of expenditure outlined in the article, analyzes the Fund’s revenues and expenditures, and assesses expenditure trends over recent years. Chapter Four investigates the technologies and innovations used in selected countries—namely the United Kingdom, India, the United States, Canada, France, and Australia—for tracking and identifying the movement of uninsured land motor vehicles. It also evaluates the feasibility of adopting these methods within the Iranian context. Chapter Five reviews the financial and legal consequences imposed on drivers of uninsured vehicles in the aforementioned countries. Finally, Chapter Six offers policy recommendations and implementation strategies aimed at preventing the circulation of uninsured vehicles in Iran, drawing on international experiences and best practices.

Keywords: motor insurance, uninsured vehicle, Bodily Injury Fund

Abstract

The present study seeks to foresight the insurance industry with a focus on potential opportunities and challenges. Drivers affecting the future of the insurance industry were extracted through an analytical review of the literature and interviews with futures experts. 33 drivers were extracted through the literature review and structured interviews with experts. These drivers were classified into seven categories: economic, technological, environmental, legal, socio-cultural, governance, and structural. 24 drivers were obtained through a literature review. Subsequently, structured interviews were conducted with five experts to strengthen the list. The interviews were evaluated using thematic analysis, and nine drivers were added to the list at this stage. The 33 drivers extracted from the literature review and interviews with insurance industry experts were screened using the Fuzzy Delphi technique. At this stage, 25 drivers were eliminated from the calculations and eight drivers were selected for the final ranking. Drivers with a defuzziness value higher than 0.7 were considered for final prioritization using Marcos. In the current study, eight drivers had a defuzziness value higher than 0.7. The threshold value of 0.7 was considered for preliminary evaluation and screening of drivers. These drivers were: the amount of spending by insurance companies on research and development projects, the patterns of cooperation between insurtechs and the insurance industry, the level of penetration of fourth-generation technologies such as the Internet of Things in businesses and people's lives, the level of use of data-driven analytics using big data in the insurance industry, requirements related to sustainable development, technology regulatory policies in the country, strengthening takaful insurance in the country, and the development of corporate governance mechanisms. Then, the eight screened drivers were prioritized using the Marcos method. Considering the scores of the future drivers of the insurance industry, focusing on challenges and opportunities, the patterns of cooperation between insurtechs and the insurance industry, the extent of use of data-driven analytics using big data in the insurance industry, the extent of penetration of fourth-generation technologies such as the Internet of Things in businesses and people's lives, and technology regulatory policies in the country, had the highest priority. The drivers were also evaluated using the DEMATEL method. This method is used to assess effectiveness and efficiency. The results of the two methods were consistent. The scenarios of the future of the insurance industry were developed based on the two drivers of cooperation between insurtechs and the insurance industry and the extent of use of data-driven analytics using big data in the insurance industry, and interviews with focus groups. Each driver consists of two contrasting situations. Experts were asked to express their opinions on each scenario. The group leader collected the opinions of the experts. From the contrast of these two drivers, four scenarios were developed. The first scenario represented the ideal future and scenario number 4 represented the worst future for the insurance industry. The research scenarios were evaluated and reviewed using the Mabak method and considering three indicators: compatibility with domestic trends, compatibility with foreign trends, and the level of credibility. The third scenario was selected as the most likely scenario. This scenario had the highest score.

Keywords: future study, Fuzzy Delphi, DEMATEL, driver, defuzziness value, IoT

Abstract

The primary objective of this research is to examine leading global solvency models and compare them with the Iranian solvency framework outlined in Regulation No. 69, with the aim of developing and estimating a customized solvency model tailored to the Iranian insurance industry. The study investigates major international solvency models, including Solvency II (Europe), Risk-Based Capital (RBC) in the United States, the Solvency Margin Ratio (Japan), and RBC II (Thailand), among others. These models are systematically compared to Iran’s current regulatory model, enabling a theoretical and practical assessment of the existing solvency framework.

Following this comparative analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of each model were identified. Based on these findings, a theoretical framework for calculating a localized solvency ratio for the Iranian insurance market was proposed. The model was then operationalized by estimating relevant risk factors and parameters, and applied across all insurance companies operating within Iran.

The study culminated in the formulation of a revised regulatory directive. Key features of the proposed model include enhancements to available capital measurement; a comprehensive RBC approach encompassing life, non-life, and reinsurance sectors; improved modeling of underwriting risk; inclusion of audit risks such as currency fluctuations, asset–liability mismatches, and investments in affiliated and subsidiary companies; incorporation of lapse risk in life insurance; adjustment factor calculations for non-proportional reinsurance; and refined credit risk modeling.

Keywords: solvency, RBC, Iran insurance industry, Solvency Margin Ratio, underwriting risk

Abstract

Research and Development (R&D) activities at both fundamental and applied levels in various fields are considered a crucial cornerstone for the development of a country. Defined research projects at these levels are subject to various risks for numerous reasons, which may impact the efficiency and achievement of the final goals of the projects, potentially leading to a waste of resources. Therefore, the issue of research project risk management, aimed at identifying, evaluating, managing, and controlling incoming risks in a dynamic manner, is critical. The objective of the present study is to identify risks and provide both insurance and non-insurance solutions.

In the present study, based on the life cycle of research projects at the aforementioned levels, 53 types of risks were identified using literature review, individual and group interviews. Additionally, the evaluation and prioritization of these risks were carried out based on the risk score criteria. According to the results, the top five identified risks are: the risk of prolongation of the contract signing process, the risk of excessive expectations from the employer, the risk of prolonged data and information collection, the risk of inaccuracy and insufficiency of data and information, and the risk of lack or weakness of human capital and the accumulation of sufficient knowledge in the specialized field.

Insurance policies such as Research and Development insurance, political risk insurance, intellectual property insurance, key person insurance, credit insurance, and professional liability insurance, alongside other common insurance policies, are proposed for mitigating and transferring certain risks. These risks include the dependency of the project's financial cycle on the project's financial resources, the risk of insufficient initial and working capital, the risk arising from incorrect budget estimation, and the risk arising from changes in economic, social, and political variables. However, due to the indeterminate nature of risk realization, qualitative nature, lack of observability and verifiability in a large population, and absence of data, many of these risks cannot be insured in the country.

Based on this, the design of a comprehensive system for research projects is proposed, which includes the following subsystems: national needs assessment subsystem, ranking subsystem for all employers and researchers of research projects, research project allocation subsystem, research project life cycle subsystem, a platform for research project brokers, and an integrated monitoring subsystem. The legal and authoritative position of such a system can be established through a decree by the Cabinet of Ministers. Considering that the target community consists of fundamental and applied research projects that are at technology readiness levels one to four, the Ministry of Science, Research and Technology is proposed as the executor due to its comprehensive nature and accumulation of specialized information.

Keywords: research project, Research and Development, risk realization, human capital

Abstract

Knowledge, innovation, and technology are regarded as the foundational pillars for analyzing the principles of production economics. Within this context, knowledge-based companies, often referred to as knowledge-driven enterprises, come into play. These companies are inherently rooted in technology, innovation, research and development, and knowledge. Due to these foundational characteristics, such companies are exposed to higher levels of risk and uncertainty compared to traditional firms, making the establishment of a dynamic and integrated risk management structure not only essential but also a critical success factor.

Knowledge, innovation, and technology are considered the foundations for analyzing the principles of production economics. In this context, knowledge-based companies, commonly referred to as knowledge-driven enterprises, emerge. These companies are inherently technological, innovative, research and development-oriented, and knowledge-based. Due to these foundational characteristics, such companies face higher levels of risk and uncertainty compared to traditional firms, making the establishment of a dynamic and integrated risk management structure essential.

Based on risk assessment using the risk score criterion (the product of the probability of risk occurrence and its impact severity), derived from structured interview data, 37 types of risks were identified with values higher than the average. Among these, the category of medical devices, supplies, and equipment had the highest average risk score, while commercialization services had the lowest. However, when the critical value of the risk score criterion in the questionnaire results was adjusted, 34 risks were found to be above the average value. Nevertheless, the overall prioritization of risks remained unchanged, as data analysis from both methods indicated that the risks of fluctuations in macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, tariffs, inflation, etc.), lack of sufficient financing facilities, changes in policies and the legal environment (tax laws, credit regulations, etc.), inability or weakness in securing internal project financing, and inability or weakness in securing external project financing ranked first to fifth in priority.

Based on the findings of this research, it is recommended that a comprehensive and integrated database of these companies be established in collaboration with the government and insurance industry players. Within this framework, the government can effectively play its supportive, facilitative, and regulatory roles, preventing resource wastage, misallocation, and redundant efforts. Additionally, the database would enable the creation of necessary internal and market mechanisms for bilateral interaction between companies and insurers.

Keywords: knowledge-based company, risk score criterion, project finance, risk occurrence

Abstract

Several factors, including insufficient financial resources, organizational disparities, widespread technological reliance, high costs of services, unnecessary prescriptions, superfluous testing, and unjustified service requests, contribute to the most pressing issues in health insurance management. A fundamental problem lies in the flawed systems, necessitating significant changes in managerial approaches. In particular, the redesign of financing mechanisms and the relationships between the insured, insurers, and healthcare providers, such as hospitals and paraclinic centers, has become imperative. Analyzing the medical insurance system in Iran and comparing it to other countries highlights the importance of risk transfer to insurance institutions and their relationships with healthcare service providers as key factors influencing the efficiency and effectiveness of the medical insurance system. This study aims to explore contemporary models of medical insurance management globally, with a focus on managed care. In this context, various forms of managed care, their mechanisms and implementation, organizational structures, and control and monitoring systems will be identified and analyzed. Ultimately, a suitable model tailored to Iran’s context will be proposed.

Keywords: health insurance, Managed Care Organization, Iran, medical expenditure

Abstract

Accident-related damages can be broadly categorized into two types: direct and indirect. Direct damages are those that are visibly apparent and are compensated through the insurance payout. In contrast, indirect damages are not immediately visible but result in a reduction in the vehicle's value. This reduction in value, commonly referred to as "vehicle depreciation," occurs when a car is involved in an accident. Despite repairs being carried out to the highest standards, a vehicle’s market value will typically decrease following an accident, as potential buyers are reluctant to pay the pre-accident price for a car that has been damaged.

Vehicle depreciation is defined as the difference in a car's market value before and after an accident. Notably, most insurance policies globally cover the depreciation of the damaged vehicle, rather than the one responsible for the accident. While the issue of depreciation is widely acknowledged in many countries as a recognized liability, claims for compensation have often been directed toward the insurance industry. This unresolved issue has led to widespread dissatisfaction among policyholders and victims, eroding trust in the insurance sector. In many cases, policyholders are forced to file lawsuits and endure lengthy legal processes to receive compensation for the loss in value.

This research project was conducted in five distinct sections: 1) Investigating the issue of vehicle depreciation within the country; 2) Reviewing statistics on depreciation claims paid out by insurers; 3) Analyzing the treatment of depreciation in foreign insurance markets; 4) Conducting interviews with industry experts to identify challenges and potential solutions; 5) Proposing actionable, localized solutions based on both domestic and international practices, alongside results from the expert interviews.

Keywords: accident, car damage, car depreciation, compensation, filing claim